This isn’t over yet
Theresa May is going to lose this vote but it may not be the final chapter in her efforts to get a deal through parliament.
The DUP and ERG leadership said they will vote against the deal and that dooms it but their waffling today and openness suggest they could still be convinced.
The previous vote was 202-432 and it was a crushing defeat for May.
Importantly, that included all 10 DUP members and 107 Conservatives who voted against the deal last time.
So far 10 Conservatives have publicly said they will switch and surely some others will as well. The key will be getting close enough that a switch in the DUP (or abstention) along with a switch from most of the ERG and as many as 21 Labour votes could get it across the finish line in a second vote (or support it today).
I peg that at around 260 votes in favour (without Labour support).
If it’s close enough, May has a chance to focus her efforts on breaking up the ERG with an argument that this is their best and only chance at getting a deal because a second referendum is the other option.