JP Morgan: Brexit on terms along the lines of May’s deal remains the most likely option

JP Morgan still believes in a revised Brexit deal

  • Revised deal seen at 35% (previously 45%)
  • Long Brexit extension seen at 20% (unchanged)
  • Second referendum seen at 20% (previously 15%)
  • General election seen at 15% (previously 10%)
  • No-deal Brexit seen at 10% (unchanged)
Their previous update on the Brexit outcome odds was two weeks ago here. All these percentages don’t mean much in my view, if anything just take the views here as a gauge of sentiment rather than an actual reflection of what’s priced in.


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