Technical Analysis

GBPJPY bounces but buyers have more work to do to change the bearishness

Remains in a downward channel

Looking at the GBPJPY on a hourly chart, the pair remains in a channel defined by a lower trend line at 139.21 and a higher trend line at 140.35.   In between are the lows from Wednesday and Thursday at thte 140.19 area. That floor was broken today and remains a hurdle for buyers.  Failure to get above that old floor and then the topside trend line are the minimum for buyers to take back more control from that technical perspective. 

Are there closer hurdles that might be a clue the bottom is in?

Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the 38.2-50% of the last trend leg lower comes in at 139.83-139.92. Get above that area takes some of the trend away (but it is the very minimum). That will need to be followed by a move above the 100 bar MA at 140.00 currently (and moving lower = blue line).  Absent those moves, the buyers are really not taking control from the shorter term perspective. Sellers remain in firm control. 

It is always tempting to buy a dip. But in a trending market, if you do, you better understand what will make the counter trend picture more favourable to other traders too (they will help feed the bounce).   Until those hurdles are broken, the trend sellers are still in control.  The buyers are simply hoping and praying the trend is over (and that has not worked well for them so far).

GBPJPY still shows the bears in control.

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